AFC Divisional Preview

NFL Playoff Preview: AFC Divisional Round

Ravens @ Steelers

The AFC is blessed with dream divisional matchups and it doesn’t get much better than Steelers v. Ravens. The division rivals will meet for the third time this season, having split the regular season series. The Ravens have already won in Pittsburgh this year and they’ll have to repeat the trick. It’ll be a lot tougher this time around; Big Ben wasn’t around for the Week 4 meeting in Pittsburgh, serving the last game of his suspension for extra-curricular activities. Big Ben did return for a Week 13 matchup, which the Steelers won, Roethlisberger’s sixth win in a row over the Ravens.

When you look at these two teams, you have to start, as they do, with defense. The Ravens D was increasingly dominant as the game wore on against Kansas City, holding the Chiefs to just 25 (!) yards in the second half. Baltimore forced five turnovers and the offense took advantage, scoring 10 points directly off of turnovers and adding another three after the Chiefs were stopped on 4^th down at midfield. As good as this Ravens defense has been over the years, there’s no question that they’ve slowed down a bit with age. The speed of that defense, especially the front-7 is a worry for the Ravens, both in containing running backs and getting to the quarterback. The Ravens inability to get sacks, they ranked in the bottom-6 in the league in that category, could be huge against the Steelers offense, whos biggest weakness is an inability to protect the quarterback. Jamal Charles averaged over 9 yards-per-carry in the Wildcard Round and looked too fast for the Ravens to handle…only the Chiefs know why he only ran nine times. Rashard Mendenhall has been kind of hot and cold this year, but he still finished with over 1200 yards and 13 TDs. Mendenhall definitely has the ability to make plays and is the kind of quick, elusive back that could trouble the Ravens. If they are forced to bring a safety into the box to stop the run, they open themselves up to Mike Wallace, one of the fastest receivers in the game, over the top.

On the other side of the ball, the Steelers had a first round bye, and their defense needed it. The Steelers limped into the playoffs with injuries to safety Troy Polamalu, linebacker Lamar Woodley with DE Aaron Smith. All of those guys are important to that defense, but having Polamalu, in particular, as healthy as possible is huge for the Steelers. Polamalu is the best safety in football and when he’s playing, his value to the Steelers cannot be overstated. For everyone out there who has any questions regarding Joe Flacco, this is the game for them to be answered, one way or the other. We’ve seen this year that to have success against the Steel Curtain, you have to be able to go through the air. Good luck running the ball against a 3-4 defense that boasts maybe the best linebacking corps in football. I think the Ravens success or failure will be on Joe Flacco’s shoulders and whether or not he can make plays with his arm.

Those of you who read my Wildcard preview, first of all I appreciate all 8 of you, second of all you know I’m not sold on this Ravens team. They beat the Chiefs soundly, but I don’t see a repeat in Pittsburgh. I just think that all of the Ravens weaknesses: not explosive on the outside on offense, can’t get to the quarterback, general old-and-slowness…they all play right into the Steelers hands. The Steelers offense has fast, young, playmakers in Mendenhall and Wallace; the Ravens aren’t fast on D. The Steelers struggle to avoid sacks, but the Ravens don’t get sacks. The Ravens don’t get big plays from their receivers; you have to go outside against the Steel Curtain. Don’t get me wrong, history and experience tells us that this game will be a war of attrition, probably settled by a single score, but I think the Steelers are the better team, have home field advantage, have the better matchup, have the better quarterback and will win this game on Saturday.

Jets @ Patriots

AFC Divisional Game #2…Bitter Divisional Rivalry #2…could it be any better? The Jets come into this game riding high after beating Peyton Manning and the Colts in Indianapolis. They’ve beaten 1b of the best quarterbacks of this generation, now they’ll have to deal with 1a.

The Jets looked pretty good against the Colts and it never really felt like they were going to lose the game. With that said, they still had to go out and win it and having Mark Sanchez lead a last minute drive to win the game is just what Jets fans will have wanted to see. For all they did well against the Colts, the Jets should be a little concerned with where they’re at right now. They had a lot of success on the ground against the Colts, Revis Island was in full effect, holding Reggie Wayne to 1 catch, Freeney and Mathis were nearly invisible and the Jets looked like the better team. What’s wrong with that? For all those good things to be true, playing against a Colts team that wasn’t really all that good this year, a Jets team that was really for real would not have needed a last second field-goal to win the game. That may sound nit-picky, but they’re not getting ready to play the rest, they’re getting ready to play the best in Bill Belichek, Tom Brady and the Patriots.

It’s funny. The Patriots feel like they’ve been around forever, while the Jets have really come to life in the last couple of seasons, but the Jets are really the veteran team in this game. Apart from the quarterbacks, the Jets have a lot more experience, which could help them in the playoff atmosphere. I think the Pats are better, but I could see a circumstance where the Jets come in warmed up after their Wildcard game and surprise the Patriots a little bit. To do that, the Jets have to keep Brady off the field, especially early. We know Brady’s not getting rattled, you can’t say the same for a lot of those guys on the Patriots sideline.

Once Brady is in rhythm, he’s almost impossible to stop and this Pats offense is one that is suited to do well against the Jets. The Jets have great corners in Revis and Cromartie, we’ve seen Revis take big-time receivers completely out of the game time after time. The thing about the Patriots is that their best receiver is whichever one is open. They can hit so many different guys in the passing game, from Deion Branch to Wes Welker, the young tight-ends and Danny Woodhead out of the backfield. They don’t have one guy that Revis can zone in on and really hurt them. If they do, it’s Wes Welker, but he’s not the kind of guy that Revis excels covering. Revis is best against the more traditional, big and fast guys, something the Pats don’t have.

I’d be really surprised if this game isn’t a lot closer than the previous meeting, but the Jets are up against it to win in New England. The Pats just look like a really complete team and I’m not sure Mark Sanchez is ready to win this game yet. Sanchez hasn’t been getting a lot of help lately either…Santonio Holmes has dropped a lot of balls recently and Dustin Keller spent more time crying for PI calls than catching passes against the Colts. Is the Jets running game and defense enough to beat the Pats? I don’t think so, I’ll take the Patriots at home in this one.

NFL Playoff Preview - Wildcard Weekend

AFC

Jets @ Colts

These teams meet in the playoffs for the second straight season, but with a totally different dynamic. The perception of these two teams has really changed since last season. The Colts aren’t a Super Bowl favourite anymore and really struggled with injuries this season, losing Bob Sanders, Dallas Clark and Austin Collie. Injury problems are nothing new in Indianapolis, but a struggling Peyton Manning is not something Colts fans are used to. The Colts picked up their game late-on to hold on to their division crown, but this is still the most vulnerable Colts team we’ve seen in a while. The Jets are almost a perfect polar opposite of the Colts, but come into the playoffs with a similar feel. Last season the Jets were the supreme underdogs, backing into the playoffs thanks to the Colts quest for imperfection. This year could not have been more different. Big offseason acquisitions Braylon Edwards, Santonio Holmes and LaDanian Tomlinson had the New York hype machine operating at full capacity. Things haven’t really gone as planned for the Jets. Their defence is nowhere near as good as it was and Mark Sanchez has struggled to produce consistently at quarterback. Like the Colts, the Jets aren’t where they thought they’d be as a team this season. These teams are like a couple of old Alfa Romeos, they could perform beautifully and look fantastic…or they could burst into flames. I think this one comes down to has it going on the day, because neither team is a great matchup for the other. The Colts have shown recently that they can stop the run, but they have to really sell out to do it. On his day, Mark Sanchez can take advantage of that, but his days have been few and far between this season. On defence, the Jets look like they have the personnel to counter the Colts receivers, but they’ve struggled to get to the quarterback this season and their linebackers could struggle to contain the Colts running backs catching out of the backfield. This is really hard to call, but I think the Jets just edge this and take revenge for last year. They have more balance on both sides of the ball, but it’ll be up to Mark Sanchez to keep them on schedule and Peyton Manning off the field.

Ravens @ Chiefs

This one is really interesting and this is the only game where there is a possibility of a bit of an upset. There aren’t a lot of people giving the Chiefs much credit coming into the playoffs, while the Ravens have been a popular Super Bowl pick for much of the season. I don’t see that at all. The Ravens are not in the same class as the Patriots and even the Steelers, and I wouldn’t be surprised if they lost this. The Chiefs are an excellent home team, going 7-1 at Arrowhead this year. Their one loss came in Week 17 against the Raiders. The Chiefs were disappointing in that one, getting blown out by a Raiders team that will miss the playoffs with playoff seeding on the line. I’m not overly concerned with that loss though. Yes, the Chiefs had seeding on the line, but I think, psychologically, the Raiders had more motivation to win that game. The Chiefs were already in the playoffs and when you’ve never been there before, as is the case with most of the team, I’m not sure you’re overly concerned with seeding, you’re just happy to be in. Conversely, the Raiders needed the win to get to .500 and were playing a division rival. Week 17 will have felt way more important to the team that won’t be playing again this season. Taking a look at how these teams matchup, a lot of football analysts have talked about how, to play defence against the Chiefs, you need a shutdown corner to take away Dwayne Bowe so you can concentrate on stopping a great running game. I’m not sure the Ravens have that shutdown guy and, in general, that Ravens defence is not what it once was. In my opinion, the Ravens are one of the most overrated teams in the NFL and it starts with the perception of their defence. The Ravens D is loaded with superstar names, how many superstar players it has is a different matter. It’s still a very good unit, but are they great? I haven’t seen it. On offence, the Ravens have a lot of talent but they aren’t very explosive, which plays right into the Chiefs hands. The Chiefs want to control the clock and pace of the game. If you can put points up you can disrupt their rhythm and they aren’t the same team. I’m not sure the Ravens can do that unless Ray Rice makes some big plays. I think the Ravens are the better team overall, but Chiefs have a great chance to make some noise at home and I’m picking them to upset the Ravens in a nail biter.

NFC

Packers @ Eagles

This is probably the most mouth-watering prospect on Wildcard weekend. The Packers beat the Eagles in the season opener, but so much has changed for both teams since then. The Packer have lost all kinds of key players to injury, but seem to be peaking at just the right time, coming into the playoffs on the back of two big wins in must win games against dangerous teams in the Giants and Bears. Their defence has played really well this year and I think that match-up, the Packers D vs. Michael Vick and the Eagles, is the one that will decide this game. Aaron Rodgers is one of the best quarterbacks in the league right now, perhaps behind only Brady and Manning and arguably only Brady. He will make plays against anyone, running game or no running game. Last season he made all the plays, but the Packers D couldn’t do anything to stop Kurt Warner and the Cardinals and the Packers ended up losing that year in overtime. Rodgers fumbled that ball, but it was the defence that lost the game, how they perform against the explosive Eagles defence will be the key to how this game turns out. They certainly have the personnel to have success against Vick. They have excellent pass rushers at every level of their defence, highlighted by Clay Matthews, and we’ve seen that the way to contain Vick is to put him under pressure. The Packers also have a lot of high-motor guys, which will help them keep Vick contained. The Eagles probably aren’t thrilled with the shape they are in coming into the playoffs. Michael Vick and DeSean Jackson have both been banged up recently, but they did have a week of rest with and they will need to be at their best to beat a Packers team that has all the momentum. The Eagles rely on big plays and I think the conditions will be a big factor in this one. Wind, rain or snow could really slow this team down, and they’re all about speed. We saw in the game against Chicago what happens when the Eagles offence gets slowed down. All of a sudden Vick can become a liability with turnovers and they’re not nearly as effective. Hopefully the weather cooperates, because if both these teams are on song, we’ll be in for a classic. It’s too close to call so I won’t even try. Normally I would just pick the team I like better, but as a neutral how can you not like both these teams?

Saints @ Seahawks

Should I even bother writing this one? I’m on a plane right now and I’m struggling to motivate myself to keep typing in a less than ideal position. Honestly though, I can’t see any way the Saints don’t win this one. The Seahawks have a great home crowd, but that can only count for so much and the gulf in class between these two teams is huge. The Saints have been pretty under the radar this year, what with the Young Bucs and the Falcons winning the division. Make no mistake; this Saints team is very much for real. They had a bit of a hangover at the beginning of the season, but they’ve rallied and are back to their best, as they proved by going into Atlanta and beating a Saints team that is great at home and was trying to lock up a first round bye. The defence isn’t forcing as many turnovers, but may actually be playing better than last year, Drew Brees is still a superstar quarterback with a bevy of weapons, Reggie Bush will only get healthier and Sean Payton is still calling the plays. Super Bowl winners traditionally struggle the next year, but I don’t get that sense of complacency from the Saints and they’ll be dangerous again this year. On the other hand, the Seahawks truly backed into the playoffs, despite ending the season with a playoff and division clinching win over the Rams in Seattle. I was really disappointed by that game, by the way. I knew I wasn’t going to be watching the two best teams, but I kinda thought we might see a bit of a barn burner. You know, thrills and spills. Instead it looked like what it was: a game between two 7-9 teams that has very little bearing on the big picture. The Seahawks will come to play, but I don’t know if that will stop them getting blown out.